tv On the Money NBC December 14, 2014 5:00am-5:31am EST
6r789s hi, everyone. welcome to "on the money." i'm becky quick. what will the rest of the year bring, and why falling oil prices aren't always good news. new regulations that could make it easier to buy a house. does it mean another mortgage disaster might be in sight? the clock is ticking. less in taxes to save you money before the new year. and the sweet smell of success. pastry chef jacques perez. i love this job. "on the money" starts right now. >> t is "on the money." your money, your life, your future. now becky quick. >> here's a look what is making news as we head to a new week "on the money." how low can it go? the price of oil fell below $58
a barrel this week, a five year low. partly due to increased supply from the united states the markets were jittery this week. the dow and s&p with the worst performance on wednesday since mid october. falling 1.5%. the nasdaq had the first two-day losing streak. stocks fell later in the week. consumers spent a lot of time shopping in. no sales stronger than expected. closely watched number because consumers make up two thirds of the economy. if you have an old apple computer sitting in your attic or the basement, you may want to take a closer look. in a 1976 apple one that still works sold for $365,000 at christies this week. lower oil prices are good news for the stock market and economy except when they are not. don't rule out santa claus. maybe a rally the end of the
year. tom lee is the funder of fundstra. and leigh gallagher fortune magazine assistant managing edit . it has been scary watching what happened with oil prices. normally you think yea but this time it is dragging downs down. what's happening here. >> i think that investors have been nervous about slowing economic growth. china and europe have been weak and oil is a signal of after recession. i think investors have been trying to figure out how much is supply and demand. in the meantime investors have been wanting to get out of anything related to oil. >> you mentioned, how much is supply and demand. is both but what's your best guess how you break it down? >> i suspect that dollar strength and market positioning is playing a bigger role in the weakness of oil than we suspect. we have had a sharp decline in
oil. 40% in a few months. >> how do you look at this? how do you shake it out. >> the first time in a long time we have the tables turn td. we have seen the stock market do so well as people on main street continue to struggle. now this is the exact flip side of this for once. what that means is basically for consumers this is billions of extra dlarls. goldman sachs calls it a blessing. you can look at it as a tax cut but one that favors the middle class rather than the 5%. >> a progressive tax cut. >> the opposite of the mortgage interest deduction, which is regressive. what you have is around the time for the holidays when retail, earlier, a month ago people were not sure what is happening with retail. things are stronger than what we got and going to get stronger the next few weeks. it takes a while for the decline in oil prices to trickle down to
the people's pockets. we are seeing results from a month ago. it is continuing to drop. >> they see savings in the bank accounts, not just $10, but $20 a week. week of it build up. we are getting to the time of the year where we see a santa claus rally. will that be the case this year? >> i think so. i know the markets have been choppy the last week or so and investors are scared. i think they are feeling beaten down. it has been a stuff year for management. it is how markets think of next year and a lot of sources of surprise. gasoline is a huge deal, lower oil is benefitting outside of the u.s. more than the u.s. as we worry about europe and china we will see upsiding. companies have a lot of cash. i think we are positioned for a santa claus rally. >> i have heard from a lot of places that what you are seeing is it will be hard for the
indexes to go down because the fund managers have been beat down by the indexes and trying to log in gains for the year. what happens when we reset the clock in january? is that off -- a brand new start at that point. do we see a decline. do you worry about that? >> for a long time, almost as long as this rally has been happening everyone has been talking about the c word, correction. that's why we have seen the market react the way it has the last few weeks. there's a lot of shakiness. we are doing well with. our economy has great science and growth. we are the safe port in a storm if you look globally. there's a lot of skittishness. >> tom, you have been bullish for a long time. what do you expect in 2015? does it continue? >> yeah. i don't think investors are optimistic. they are worried about oil, worried about high yields. the last couple of weeks people
have been frustrated because of their performance against l s me we could have a good year next year. january could be strong out of the gate. >> part of that will be trying to figure out what the fed is doing during that period of time, too. if the fed raises rates does that change the game? what do we expect? what do you think? >> i think that is a big factor in the overall nervousness. we have the best jobs report in 15 years the hess fed must raise rates earlier and everyone freaks o. conventional wisdom is that nothing will be adjusted but it is coming down the pike but may not get in the way of a strong january as tom is predicting. >> when you think that january could be off to the races, what are you telling clients? telling them not to wait for dips or -- >> i'm telling them to look through the oil and to through the high yield market which has been hit by energy and focus on the fundamentals. companies are in a great financial position. consumers have a lot of spending
power. i think we have consensus talking about fed tightening. the reality is the consensus is bracing for tightening. >> what oil stocks. would you tell them to be in for oil prices or lower for sometime to come? >> i think right now we are seeing a real liquidation of energy stocks which obviously creates opportunity. at the end of the day no one is distinguishing good and bad companies. >> thank you for joining us. appreciate it. up next, we are "on the money." forget the big down paym % down could make you a homeowner. is now the time to buy a house or is in the beginning of a new real estate bubble? if you spent a ton of money this holiday season, maybe we can help you save some now. last-minute tax tips to take advantage of. as we head to a break look at how the stock market ended the week.
buying a home could get easier. mortgage giants fannie mae and fre freddie m are make mortgages available to borrowers with 3% down payments. robert shiller is yale university professor of economics & ndd he is joining u. professor, thank you for being here today. >> my pleasure, becky. >> i'm of two minds on this. it sounds like a great idea to get more consumers in to homes. isn't this what got us in to trouble to begin with, 3% down payments? >> it is not completely new now. we have fha mortgages doing almost the same. yes, it is. it sounds risky, right, to the lender and for the mortgage insurer who will insure these.
it is only a 3% margin. if someone defaults and they have to sell the house they mat. the good side is usually people don't default for a year or two at least. >> he good news is we won't have another crash for a year or two. >> that's a question. home prices -- our latest numbers are going up at 5% a year. if that keeps up, 3% margin will turn to an 8% margin for lenders in one year. >> although we have seen years where home prices may decline by 10%. >> that's what worries me. we are seeing a deceleration. they are going up but at a lower pace. in history that's been the precursor todecline. the fact it is slowing is a concern. this might be more like the 1970s or the '80s boom, not like the really big one that led to the financial crisis. >> we can cross our fingers on. that one of the concerns is that millennials aren't buying houses
the way previous generations have. what's happening there? >> well, i wish we knew for sure. one thing, of course, is the economy is still weak, somewhat weak. my lennials are still uncertain. maybe also there's a cultural change. our millennials spend more time on facebook than standing over the backyard fence and talking to the neighbors. neighborhoods, you know, are not as important or maybe there is an urbanization trend going on. >> or maybe they are getting married and having kids later. maybe they will change, too. >> maybe they love mom and dad and are staying home. >> we have been watching oil prices. oil prices continue to set the multi-year lows. how does that impact the housing market? >> well, i think, first of all, low oil prices have historically been a good sign for gdp, for the economy and jobs. jobs are very important for the
housing market. the other thing that comes to my mind is i have been worrying about home prices in remote suburbs where they seem to be weaker. i think one concern is the commuting cost. when people see oil prices, gas prices going down they will feel more favorable to buying a remote house that is a 45 minute or hour drive from the city. >> because a cheaper commute these days. do you think that buying a home is a good investment and do you think now is a good time to buy? >> in a sense it is a good investment. it is the only one some people make and you have to have something to live on when you retire. i'm glad people are doing that. on the other hand, historically, houses have not done well as investments. they havent really gone up much in value in the last 100 years. on top of that, they are a nuisance just to take care of them. >> they are a nuisance but at
least you get to live in this investment. >> i own my own home. we have neighbors. we have been here for 30 years. we have old friends right across the street. it's nice. but that's not really an investment. that's people. that's community. >> right. >> professor shiller, thank you for joining us. >> my pleasure, becky. up next we are "on the money," last-minute tips to make sure you don't pay too much to uncle sam. could the world run out of chocolate? no! how we are eating more of the sweet stuff and how it is changing the price
personal financial correspondent sharon epperson is here to talk about your money, your future and dos and continues. what do i need to do before the end of the year to make sure i am not penalized. >> one of the biggest wrinkles for many people is the affordable care act and whether or not you have had health insurance during the year. if you have not you are going to get penalized. you need to figure out what the tax bite might be. if you an insurance health marketplace and got a credit you need to figure out what that might be. there are on-line calculators to figure out the impact. the other thing is your flexible spending accounts. those are use it or lose it usually. there are some provisions with some plans that let you extend it to march to use the money but not all plans offer. that some allow you to carry over $500 but not all plans. find out what your employer will let you do. >> go get glasses, anything you can before the end of the year. >> use up that flexible spending money. >> the other thing is if you are
retired or inherited an ira, take the required minimum distribution. you can't defer taxes on regular 401(k) and ira forever. you have to take those required minimum distributions and if you don't the penalty can be steep. you want to make sure you take it by the year. >> what about things to make sure you get the most out of things, tried and true tip s, like cutting back on your taxable income. too late to anything any of that out? >> you have time to max out, put as much as you can in to the 401(k)s, employer's retirement plan, reduce your taxable income that way. $17500 is what you can put in this year and an extra $5500 if you are 50 or older. $23,000 you won't be taxed on if you put that to your regular 401(k). if you are low to moderate income save and put money in an ira or 401(k) you may be eligible for a savings of
$2,000. this is a time of giving and you may want to make charitable contributions by december 31st so you get the tax deduction. >> we know it has been a good year for the stock market. we love the stock market returns. we don't love the capital gains taxes. what do we do about this. >> sell the losers to offset the gains and that is a tried and true rule you should adhere to. the other thing is to delay selling winners. you don't want to add capital gains to income on and get taxed on the money. wait about that. the other thing people don't think of is mutual funds, it is great to dollar cost average in mutual funds but you don't want to buy up a bunch of shares at the end of the year. dollar cost averaging is great but if you think of buying new ones hold off for for the new year. >> thank you very much. our financial santa claus with tips. next up on "on the money," isn't it sweet, jacques torres is joining me with a look at
starts for november. happy hanukkah, everybody. the festival of lights begins on tuesday evening. on wednesday, the federal reserve's open market committee ends the two-day meeting on monetary policy. on wednesday, happy birthday to pope francis who turns 78. with cocoa prices up 25% in the past year and consumers around the world eating more chocolate than ever, we are starting to wonder if chocolate could be a rare precious commodity. joining us with the skinny on the chocolate business, i'm joined by jacques torres. founder of jacques torres chocolate. thank you for being here. >> thank you for inviting me. >> there are scary headlines concerning chocolate recently. we have heard of hershey and mars saying they need to raise prices because the commodity is more expensive and not enough cocoa is planted to keep up with demand. are we facing a shortage? >> few answers to that. the first answer is that we are
producing 3.5 million tons of cocoa around the world we need 4.5 in about six years, in 2020. so we have to step up the production. buying more cocoa and that's why we use more. maybe the solution, the farmers are not paid off and a lot of farmers are abandoning cocoa and we don't want that. we want to pay a little more for the kilo of cocoa in order for them to grow it. i think that fair trade will be a solution. education is a solution. how to plant more cocoa trees for an acre. also teach how to spray the trees. the trees are delicate and 90% of farmer, little family who grew a few trees. so that's a big education.
i think that is -- you mentioned they are investing to teach and help the farmers. >> we're not going to run out of chocolate? >> not for the frequent chocolates and big companies. for us, the small maker we already pay a premium for chocolates and the beans. our price will go high and fast than the chocolate which is 68% of the world production of chocolate. we are safer. the america produces 15% of the world's production of cocoa and this is pretty much what we use. we should be okay. we pay more already and fair trade is our thing. so we should be fine. >> get to what you have brought in today. this smells fantastic. i feel sorry for the viewers at home. this is hot chocolate you just whipped up. >> this is real hot chocolate. not cocoa powder. the same i use in my building. this is how we make the hot
chocolate. it is rich and delicious. >> it is like drinking liquid candy is essentially what we are doing here. >> not too sweet. 60% cocoa, not too much sugar. this is pure chocolate, you are right sglit is a chocolate syrup. so thick and creamy. fantastic. >> thank you. we do a lot of things for the holiday days. hanukkah pretty soon, we have a few things for hanukkah and also lot of different gifts for christmas from the item bonbon and snowman and little bags of everything that we document the orange coated with chocolate, cherries, a lot of those things with chocolate. we have a lot of gifts and chocolate ready for the holiday. >> what is holiday sales for you in terms of the eight stores that you have in new york cityo >> christmas is going to be 35%, 38%. and then easter.
so christmas is the first one and valentine's day is crazy. the biggest day of the year. the smallest holiday in numbers because it is short but it is one day of craziness. we love valentine's. everybody go behind the counter sell chocolates. it is interesting about valentine's. ladies know what they want two or three days before and pick what they want. men -- >> last-minute shoppers. >> don't really know and they have the price in mind, not the product. we try to cater to everyone and have everyone ready that day. >> doesn't surprise me to hear that at all. jacques, thank you for coming in and sharing today and wish you the best. >> thank you very much. happy to be here. >> thank you very much. that's hour show for today. next week a look at "frozen" on ice with nicole feld of feld entertainment. the company that produces the
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right now nbc 10 news today, an investigation is under way in a philadelphia maybe hood after a family says someone bombed their house and is ththis is th time this month they have been called to the block. a van crashed overnight. we'll show you the dam from the screen. a big day for the birds at lincoln financial field. the weather shouldn't be a problem for the match-up against the cowboys. but if you are watching the game from the stands tonight, an extra layer will definitely come in handy. good morning. i'm rosemary connors. it's 5:30 on this